Trying to Keep an Open Mind

Aug 2, 2022

11:25 am

• Equity market rally discounts a re-run of the Goldilocks scenario • We accept the idea that US inflation may be peaking but we fear it will be sticky at around 5%. • We struggle with market’s pricing that the Fed funds rate will peak at the turn of the year • US corporate earnings…

Read More

The Dollar – the Best of a Bad Bunch

Jul 26, 2022

11:24 am

• Dollar – few alternatives to the currency at present • Euro – too few positives • Sterling – under pressure from politics and inflation • Yen – likely downside risk until the Fed baulks at recession risk • Swiss franc – has safe haven status backed by a likely positive interest rate by September…

Read More

Bear Markets – There is Light “Before” the End of the Tunnel

Jul 25, 2022

11:16 am

The month gone by was not too different from the month before. The same factors, i.e., inflation, rate hikes, and impending-recession-haunted markets, and the indices, both headline, and broader markets, dived to a new correction low. The headline indices missed running into the bear market territory by a small margin, and the mid-cap index officially…

Read More

US inflation hits 9% and everything is fine right?

Jul 20, 2022

7:30 am

• US inflation surprises to the upside but the markets take it in their stride • Fed looks minded to raise rates by 75bps or more • We suspect that while inflation will fall back it may persist for far longer than the markets will be comfortable with • China’s growth disappoints but still has…

Read More