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Put pivot

Aug 5, 2022

5:32 pm

The US FOMC meeting was the highlight of July 2022, where the US Fed chair, Jerome Powell, emphatically denied that the US was in a recession despite two successive quarters of GDP contraction. The Fed raised rates by 75 bps, in line with market expectations, and guided that they would be data-dependent for future hikes….

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Trying to Keep an Open Mind

Aug 2, 2022

11:25 am

• Equity market rally discounts a re-run of the Goldilocks scenario • We accept the idea that US inflation may be peaking but we fear it will be sticky at around 5%. • We struggle with market’s pricing that the Fed funds rate will peak at the turn of the year • US corporate earnings…

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The Dollar – the Best of a Bad Bunch

Jul 26, 2022

11:24 am

• Dollar – few alternatives to the currency at present • Euro – too few positives • Sterling – under pressure from politics and inflation • Yen – likely downside risk until the Fed baulks at recession risk • Swiss franc – has safe haven status backed by a likely positive interest rate by September…

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Bear Markets – There is Light “Before” the End of the Tunnel

Jul 25, 2022

11:16 am

The month gone by was not too different from the month before. The same factors, i.e., inflation, rate hikes, and impending-recession-haunted markets, and the indices, both headline, and broader markets, dived to a new correction low. The headline indices missed running into the bear market territory by a small margin, and the mid-cap index officially…

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