Inflation and Central Bank Watch

Dec 12, 2022

12:36 pm

• The Fed, ECB and UK MPC are all likely to raise rates by 50bps this coming week • US producer price inflation showed surprising strength next up CPI • US inflation trends likely exacerbated by recent weakness of the dollar • The re-opening of China can only add to some of the global inflation…

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Investment Strategy

Dec 7, 2022

6:27 am

• Global equities rally on the back of likely slower Fed rate hikes but terminal rates likely to be higher than anticipated earlier. • PMI data across geographies in contraction zone. India amongst the few exceptions. • Despite incremental improvement in data, Eurozone worries are far from over. • Large scale protests in China against…

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Dream On

Dec 5, 2022

7:20 am

• Market is pricing the dream that interest rates will peak at a reasonable level and fall back quickly in the second half of 2023. • More likely that rates will peak and stay a high level for much of 2023 • Slack will have to be created in the global economy which puts corporate…

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Managing Tail Risks – US Government Bonds and the Oil price

Nov 29, 2022

8:53 am

• Extraordinary inversion of the US yield curve • We believe it is more likely that the US 10-year government bond yield moves back to the 4.00%-4.25% • We prefer short duration • We warn investors not to underestimate the risk to the upside for the oil price • We expect Russia/OPEC to protect the…

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