Jun 24, 2016 2:18 pm
Outlook In our June 6th commentary, we wrote: A Summer of Global Event Risk We advise caution on deploying new capital We advised the rally was weakening We advised our technical models suggested weakness ahead We advised markets were complacent and were entering a period of event risk We advised investors consider their risk exposures…
Read MoreJun 20, 2016 7:16 am
Summary Mr. Market is a manic depressive with huge mood swings, and you should bet against him, not with him, particularly when he is raving. – Barton Biggs With full and due respect to Gov. Rajan, one lesson we have learnt in 25 years of corporate life and markets is that no one is indispensable….
Read MoreJun 7, 2016 6:25 am
MONETARY POLICY UPDATE Action The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, in line with our expectations. While the RBI signalled to stay “accommodative” in its policy stance, it has also flagged “an upward bias” to the projected inflation trajectory. The RBI reiterated its stance on revised liquidity framework announced…
Read MoreJun 6, 2016 6:40 am
Executive Summary It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most responsive to change. – Charles Darwin’s Theory of Evolution A Summer of Global Event Risk A horrible jobs report in the U.S. puts the Fed on hold in June… we hope. Sharpest…
Read MoreMay 23, 2016 9:48 am
Summary Nifty 50 earnings and CNX 500 earnings have been affected by the woeful performance from PSU banks and Steel companies. Excluding these two industries, profits for the Nifty 50 and CNX 500 have been impressive in what was expected to be a dismal earnings season. We remain buyers of growth stocks selling at reasonable…
Read MoreMay 16, 2016 11:00 am
There is nothing reliable to be learnt about making money. If there were, study would be intense and everyone with a positive IQ would be rich. – John Kenneth Galbraith For over a decade, India’s been captive to the whims of foreign institutional investors. That’s not a bad thing; however, FI flows in the past…
Read MoreMay 9, 2016 2:01 pm
There Is No Alternative On April 11th, we were optimistic about green shoots that were becoming visible in the domestic economy. The Nifty was at 7500. On April 18th, with the Nifty 50 at 7847, we stated “prudence dictates chasing the market after a 1,000 point rally is an unwise choice.” On April 25th, we…
Read MoreMay 1, 2016 2:00 pm
Achtung? Achtung was a memorable refrain for all Commando comic book readers, and is German for alert or warning. While the media obsessed about the soaring Yen, it’s the economic data out of the U.S. that merits an alert or warning. The chart below should concern any investor, and particularly emerging markets investors. The US…
Read MoreApr 22, 2016 1:57 pm
Equities We laid out a clear and optimistic green shoots story for Indian equities in our maiden Sanctum Investment Strategy Call earlier this week At the time the Nifty was at 7550. The market obviously saw the same things we saw and we have seen the Nifty zoom higher by 4.0% in a holiday shortened…
Read MoreApr 11, 2016 1:14 pm
Equity Positive Developments in the Domestic Economy Over the past few weeks, we have been noting a number of positive economic developments in the domestic economy. In particular, we see upticks in leading and coincident indicators in the transportation sector. This is of particular importance as transports are a leading indicator of economic activity. Valuation…
Read More
