Apr 17, 2017 12:27 pm
Summary Valuation & Growth Nifty & CNX 500 Earnings Trends Sectoral Analysis Global Trump Promises Falling Like Dominoes Valuations and Global Recovery “Over the last few decades, investors timeframes have shrunk. They’ve become obsessed with quarterly returns. In fact, technology now enables them to become distracted by returns on a daily basis, and even minute…
Read MoreApr 6, 2017 1:46 pm
Repo rate unchanged at 6.25% The Reserve Bank of India today decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25% which was decided unanimously by all the 6 members. The decision was consistent with maintaining a neutral stance on monetary policy and achieving a medium-term target for CPI…
Read MoreApr 5, 2017 2:54 pm
A Reversal of Fortunes The reversible is ironic. In past years, FIs have been attributed as the smart money that bought the bottom while retail, the dumb money that capitulated at the worst times. Recent experience suggests otherwise. FIs exited the market en masse in the great rotation of year end 2016, elated by a…
Read MoreMar 21, 2017 5:01 am
Summary Valuation & Growth Nifty & CNX 500 Earnings Trends Sectoral Analysis Global Trump Promises Falling Like Dominoes Valuations and Global Recovery The Ides of March notwithstanding, nor earnings, nor the Fed and elections, equity markets have surged to new highs. Back in late November, we wrote that equities were at historically low valuations on…
Read MoreMar 6, 2017 1:43 pm
Summary Economy Inflation is Rising Worldwide Key Areas Still Ailing in the Domestic Economy Outlook Moving to Neutral Bias on G-sec Rates Outlook unchanged on Equities If you aren’t confused, you aren’t doing it right – Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management Teenagers & Seniors Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital recently visited India and called the…
Read MoreFeb 20, 2017 2:07 pm
Summary Earnings Update Nifty & CNX 500 Earnings Trends Sectoral Analysis Outlook Moving to shorter duration on Fixed Income Outlook unchanged on Equities The Illusory Truth Effect Consider these statements. We only use 10 percent of our brains. Eating carrots improves eyesight. Vitamin C cures the common cold. Crime in the United States is at…
Read MoreFeb 8, 2017 1:33 pm
Rates unchanged at 6.25%; Shift from Accommodative to Neutral The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25%; which was decided unanimously by all the 6 members. The MPC reiterated the CPI target of 5% by Mar-17 while the medium term CPI target remains at 4% within…
Read MoreFeb 6, 2017 11:41 am
Summary Global Complacency Starts to Set In Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus Not a Done Deal Honeymoon with Wall Street Waning French Bonds Spiking Domestic Consensus Bullishness Abounds Why Markets Loved the India Budget Interest Rate Forecast What is Driving Equities Higher? Outlook I’ve lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened…
Read MoreFeb 1, 2017 2:38 pm
Broad Macro Takeaways The expansionary budget notwithstanding, the FM pegged the fiscal deficit for FY18 at 3.2% of GDP and remains committed to achieve 3% in FY19. Net borrowings: The budgeted net market borrowing significantly declined -18% to INR 3.48 lakh crore compared to the budgeted amount in FY17. Disinvestment update: The divestment target (from…
Read MoreJan 30, 2017 10:58 am
Key Focus on Rural, Housing, Tax Rates and Fiscal Spending The Union Budget 2018 is getting a makeover through a couple of departures from age old traditions, being presented earlier on February 1, and consolidated with the Railway Budget. Rural India has been hit particularly badly by demonetisation. We would think Mr. Jaitley’s first order…
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