Jan 23, 2017 1:28 pm
“That was no presidential speech; that was a veritable declaration of war.” – Handelsblatt, German Media “Has there ever been a new U.S. administration that began by spreading unease, not expectations, throughout the world?” – Japanese Media “The Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will…
Read MoreJan 9, 2017 12:16 pm
Performance Attribution Q4 2016 & CY 2016 The Domestic Investor Steps Up Equity mutual funds saw an inflow of more than Rs. 10,000 crore in December, making it the highest in 18 months, underpinned by investor optimism and regular contributions to savings plans. It may also be an indirect impact of demonetisation, as some of…
Read MoreDec 27, 2016 4:54 am
Be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy. – Warren Buffett Just when things were looking marginally better on the demonetisation front, the honourable Prime Minister riled investors with his speech over the weekend on taxation for capital markets. We are seeing a panicky opening. The timing of the remarks as well…
Read MoreDec 12, 2016 12:57 pm
We could have had a global economy showing signs of a strong recovery, a surging domestic economy amidst benign inflation and accommodative policy. Trumpian fiscal stimulus would have negated withdrawal of liquidity and rising rates. Instead, we face the prospect of a substantial haircut to company earnings at the start of the new year and…
Read MoreDec 7, 2016 1:38 pm
Policy Action: Rates unchanged at 6.25%; accommodative stance continues Under the second review of the newly formed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, the key policy repo rate was unchanged at 6.25%; which was decided unanimously by all the 6 members. The policy tone remains accommodative, with the MPC reiterating the CPI target of…
Read MoreNov 28, 2016 1:47 pm
Summary This Week: Debt strategy recommendations and interest rate outlook Equity bottom formation process underway, large caps attractive Why the U.S. 1980s scenario is unlikely to play out this time around Global Gold prospects remain bleak Strategy & Technical Outlook Demonetisation impact on GDP analysis Debt It was the best of times to be a…
Read MoreNov 16, 2016 2:06 pm
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes the laws.” – Amschel Rothschild The demonetisation scheme caught the markets by surprise. The only comparable we can think of in analysing this event is a natural disaster analogy, a temporary but painful contraction in economic activity. First order reactions are invariably…
Read MoreNov 9, 2016 11:51 am
Snapshot Short term ramifications exist from these dual events, though in the longer term, positive structural changes are underway in the domestic economy. The underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong particularly in quality long term growth assets. No one expected Mr. Trump to win. We believe Mr. Trump will move to calm markets,…
Read MoreNov 7, 2016 10:54 am
Summary On Sep 12th, 2016, we wrote that indices were richly valued and forward returns on the index were likely to be muted (see “Global Turmoil and High Valuations” Sep 12 2016, Nifty 50: 8866). This week we discuss the current investment scenario, implications of the U.S. elections, our past experience with similar events, review…
Read MoreOct 24, 2016 10:53 am
Summary This month we review relative valuations on midcaps versus large caps, attractiveness of equities versus bonds, impacts of foreign flows versus domestic, first thoughts on quarterly earnings, bond markets strategies and upcoming global events. Lessons from Bamboo Shoots When a Chinese bamboo is planted, watered, and nurtured for the whole growing season, it does…
Read More
