Jul 2, 2026 9:19 am
Q2 was neither recession nor recovery in the textbook sense. The global economy absorbed a genuine shock — the Gulf disruption, higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions — without buckling, then surprised positively into quarter-end. The global economic surprise index fell sharply through April before recovering sharply through June, comfortably above trend. But the composition…
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Jun 29, 2026 11:56 am
• An unconventional US economy revival led by CAPEX • Stronger consumer spending led by higher wage growth is needed, but it may worry the Fed • Market rally broadens – the old economy stirs • :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} sees pushback from the bond market US economic data has staged a striking recovery, signalling the economy continues…
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Jun 22, 2026 10:22 am
• The Great Equity Reversal – Equity comes out of Retirment • The Warsh Fed – Short and sweet • The Musk Premium – SpaceX outpaces Tesla • The Dysfunctional America Risk – Where will we be by December? There are weeks when the responsible thing to do is to sit down quietly, pour a…
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Jun 15, 2026 12:03 pm
Investment conclusion: At the time of writing, our central assumption is that a US-Iran peace deal is more likely than not. Markets’ first reaction to the development should be a reversal of the crisis trade: some profit-taking in energy, materials, and technology, accompanied by renewed interest in consumer discretionary, real estate, Europe, India, and selected…
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