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How much inflation do you want before you believe it?

May 17, 2021

8:57 am

• Actual inflation is showing up in the numbers: PPI and CPI surprised to the upside. • US wage pressures are starting to build • COVID brings a confluence of additional factors that adds to the inflation argument • Bond markets have been surprisingly muted • Equity markets are favouring Financials and Materials over Technology…

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This is Not Normal, but It is Probably for Real

May 10, 2021

11:07 am

• Mounting inflation pressures point to a new world of inflation away from the previous normal • US employment data was another clear signal of building wage inflation • Government bond yields anchored by central banks may save bonds for the moment • Equities to continue to rise in the absence of a marked rise…

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Not Out of the Woods

May 5, 2021

4:53 am

• COVID challenges still abound – a smooth pick up in global growth not assured • The gold price may be a bellwether of investor concern’s about the spread of virus variants • Growth has pushed inflation pressures not seen in decades • Some inflation particularly in metals may stick for structural reasons • Japanese…

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Testing Times

May 4, 2021

6:44 am

The last few weeks have been particularly difficult for many of us as the second Covid wave in India has been much severe than any across the world. However, there are early signs that cases in Maharashtra (and Mumbai within that) may be peaking and some of the other, larger severely affected states like Tamil…

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