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Rotating to the Old Normal

Mar 8, 2021

8:49 am

• Global growth data is strong and getting stronger • The upward pressure on bonds yields is here to stay – think a 10 year bond yield of 3% • Rotation away from last year’s winners of technology and duration • The new portfolio winners will be income producers: back to the Old Normal Last…

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Can you Endure the Duration?

Mar 1, 2021

10:46 am

• Bonds endure a tough month. • Bond traders are sending an unambiguous signal to the Treasury that they do not see value in their paper. • US government Bond yields could go a lot higher – 6% is justified by historical precedent. • US 10 year government bond yields well above 2% look quite…

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Upgrades Everywhere

Feb 22, 2021

10:06 am

• Economists raise global GDP forecasts after a strong start to the year • Many economists add one to two percentage points to their GDP growth forecasts • Fed Chairman Powell speaks this week – will he deflect from the easy money line? • Stay long equities and be very careful with bond duration Global…

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Equities Beat Expectations

Feb 15, 2021

7:10 am

• Equity markets rise as global corporate earnings reports handsomely beat expectations. • US budget progress and an infrastructure and green budget to follow to keep markets vibrant. • COVID news from Israel promotes hope for earlier normalisation. • Better than expected US inflation data suppresses rise in US 10 year government bond yield •…

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