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Illusory Truths and Fact

Feb 20, 2017

2:07 pm

Summary Earnings Update Nifty & CNX 500 Earnings Trends Sectoral Analysis Outlook Moving to shorter duration on Fixed Income Outlook unchanged on Equities The Illusory Truth Effect Consider these statements. We only use 10 percent of our brains. Eating carrots improves eyesight. Vitamin C cures the common cold. Crime in the United States is at…

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Monetary Policy Update

Feb 8, 2017

1:33 pm

Rates unchanged at 6.25%; Shift from Accommodative to Neutral The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25%; which was decided unanimously by all the 6 members. The MPC reiterated the CPI target of 5% by Mar-17 while the medium term CPI target remains at 4% within…

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A Rise in Complacency & U.S. Risk Premiums

Feb 6, 2017

11:41 am

Summary Global Complacency Starts to Set In Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus Not a Done Deal Honeymoon with Wall Street Waning French Bonds Spiking Domestic Consensus Bullishness Abounds Why Markets Loved the India Budget Interest Rate Forecast What is Driving Equities Higher? Outlook I’ve lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened…

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Union Budget FY17-18

Feb 1, 2017

2:38 pm

Broad Macro Takeaways The expansionary budget notwithstanding, the FM pegged the fiscal deficit for FY18 at 3.2% of GDP and remains committed to achieve 3% in FY19. Net borrowings: The budgeted net market borrowing significantly declined -18% to INR 3.48 lakh crore compared to the budgeted amount in FY17. Disinvestment update: The divestment target (from…

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