Where’s the Money?

Nov 27, 2017

2:34 pm

“I have a high tolerance for pain” – Elon Musk Elon Musk’s quote has relevance to this week’s commentary. There’s been an ongoing debate about index valuations and forward return expectations. To gain some insight, we study the past 8 years of index returns versus the rest of the market, and put to test the…

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Return of the Dark Knight

Nov 13, 2017

1:12 pm

“It is dangerous to make forecasts, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra The Dark Knight for the markets – crude oil – has risen, after a roughly 3 year hiatus. Crude has been, directly or indirectly, a contributor to every major recession going back to 1973-74. The situation today is evolving into a geo-political…

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Lame Ducks to White Swans

Oct 30, 2017

11:26 am

“Knowledge of what is possible is the beginning of happiness” – George Santayana A mosaic is taking shape, and a picture of an economy with structural low inflation, declining cost of capital, credit score based infrastructure, improving productivity, sound fiscal policy, credit multipliers, public investment multipliers, leapfrog technology, and healthy rural and urban consumers is…

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Key Drivers for the Next Leg Up

Oct 16, 2017

1:52 pm

“If you look carefully, almost all Old Money secrets can be traced to a single source: a longer-term outlook.” – Bill Bonner In the face of dismal expectations for earnings this quarter, we have witnessed a surprising IIP print at a four month high of 4.3%, lower than expected inflation at 3.3%, robust auto sales,…

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