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A Rise in Complacency & U.S. Risk Premiums

Feb 6, 2017

11:41 am

Summary Global Complacency Starts to Set In Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus Not a Done Deal Honeymoon with Wall Street Waning French Bonds Spiking Domestic Consensus Bullishness Abounds Why Markets Loved the India Budget Interest Rate Forecast What is Driving Equities Higher? Outlook I’ve lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened…

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Union Budget FY17-18

Feb 1, 2017

2:38 pm

Broad Macro Takeaways The expansionary budget notwithstanding, the FM pegged the fiscal deficit for FY18 at 3.2% of GDP and remains committed to achieve 3% in FY19. Net borrowings: The budgeted net market borrowing significantly declined -18% to INR 3.48 lakh crore compared to the budgeted amount in FY17. Disinvestment update: The divestment target (from…

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Union Budget 2018: Watershed or Let Down?

Jan 30, 2017

10:58 am

Key Focus on Rural, Housing, Tax Rates and Fiscal Spending The Union Budget 2018 is getting a makeover through a couple of departures from age old traditions, being presented earlier on February 1, and consolidated with the Railway Budget. Rural India has been hit particularly badly by demonetisation. We would think Mr. Jaitley’s first order…

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The Shot Heard Around the World

Jan 23, 2017

1:28 pm

“That was no presidential speech; that was a veritable declaration of war.” – Handelsblatt, German Media “Has there ever been a new U.S. administration that began by spreading unease, not expectations, throughout the world?” – Japanese Media “The Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will…

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