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V versus U

May 11, 2020

7:20 am

• The grind higher in US equities appears to back the V-shaped recovery view • A possible 25% unemployment rate would signal a U. • We should remain cognisant of the massive relief provided to households • Will households save or spend their ‘Trump’ cheques? … History suggests saving • Some US equities have seen…

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Two Sides of a Coin

May 5, 2020

7:58 am

“The more things change, the more they remain the same”. Do they? We have been in the eye of a storm that has been threatening to change most things that touches our lives directly as well as indirectly. We have been exploring in the context of investment strategy as advisors, custodians and ‘fiduciarists’. Global macro…

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Slow Emergence from the Bunker

May 4, 2020

1:31 pm

• April’s relief rally after a frenetic March • The slow unwind of the lockdown should at the very least help sentiment • Policymakers continue to rack up their support • The depth of the global recession still unknown • The asset market is framing the future outcomes around survivors, thrivers and victims April brought…

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A rain check on where we are

Apr 27, 2020

6:11 am

• Global economy beyond its worst shock but that doesn’t mean an easy recovery • Second quarter Global GDP forecast to contract at 20%+ on an annualised basis • Bond and equity markets slowly absorbing the scale of the damage but we are only part way through • Crucial will be the scale of the…

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