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The Gambler’s Fallacy

Aug 1, 2016

6:01 am

Summary The Gambler’s Fallacy has implications for Indian equities and bonds. India is a clear consensus favourite today. We look at valuations and the best strategy forward. The Gambler’s Fallacy… In the summer of 1913, crowds at a roulette table in Monte Carlo witnessed an incredible event. The ball had landed on black 15 times…

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Shifting Perceptions of Risk

Jul 25, 2016

12:15 pm

Summary Perceptions of global risk are shifting. Domestically, valuations on the index are rising. We look at various factors in formulating our investment strategy ahead. A Shifting Landscape… Developed markets, by their very definition, are supposed to demonstrate stability, sound governance, transparency and lower risk. Throw that playbook out the window. Brexit shifted perceptions. We…

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Second Quarter Performance Attribution

Jul 5, 2016

6:04 am

Quarter end is the time we look into the rear-view mirror to evaluate trends and gain insights from past performance. The Nifty 50 Struggled to Deliver a Base 12 % Hurdle Return Over the Past 12 Months A 12% hurdle rate is an accepted long term return benchmark for Equities. For the Nifty 50, 16…

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Building Walls To Freedom

Jun 24, 2016

2:18 pm

Outlook In our June 6th commentary, we wrote: A Summer of Global Event Risk We advise caution on deploying new capital We advised the rally was weakening We advised our technical models suggested weakness ahead We advised markets were complacent and were entering a period of event risk We advised investors consider their risk exposures…

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