Demonetisation Impacts

Nov 16, 2016

2:06 pm

“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes the laws.” – Amschel Rothschild The demonetisation scheme caught the markets by surprise. The only comparable we can think of in analysing this event is a natural disaster analogy, a temporary but painful contraction in economic activity. First order reactions are invariably…

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Indian and U.S. “Black Swan Events”.

Nov 9, 2016

11:51 am

Snapshot Short term ramifications exist from these dual events, though in the longer term, positive structural changes are underway in the domestic economy. The underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong particularly in quality long term growth assets. No one expected Mr. Trump to win. We believe Mr. Trump will move to calm markets,…

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State of Fear

Nov 7, 2016

10:54 am

Summary On Sep 12th, 2016, we wrote that indices were richly valued and forward returns on the index were likely to be muted (see “Global Turmoil and High Valuations” Sep 12 2016, Nifty 50: 8866). This week we discuss the current investment scenario, implications of the U.S. elections, our past experience with similar events, review…

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Relative Choice

Oct 24, 2016

10:53 am

Summary This month we review relative valuations on midcaps versus large caps, attractiveness of equities versus bonds, impacts of foreign flows versus domestic, first thoughts on quarterly earnings, bond markets strategies and upcoming global events. Lessons from Bamboo Shoots When a Chinese bamboo is planted, watered, and nurtured for the whole growing season, it does…

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