Slow Emergence from the Bunker

May 4, 2020

1:31 pm

• April’s relief rally after a frenetic March • The slow unwind of the lockdown should at the very least help sentiment • Policymakers continue to rack up their support • The depth of the global recession still unknown • The asset market is framing the future outcomes around survivors, thrivers and victims April brought…

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A rain check on where we are

Apr 27, 2020

6:11 am

• Global economy beyond its worst shock but that doesn’t mean an easy recovery • Second quarter Global GDP forecast to contract at 20%+ on an annualised basis • Bond and equity markets slowly absorbing the scale of the damage but we are only part way through • Crucial will be the scale of the…

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Major Challenges Ahead – Emerging Markets and Europe in Focus

Apr 20, 2020

10:30 am

• US equities led by tech continue to climb higher • It’s only a matter of time before the scale of the drop in GDP overwhelms near-term positives for the equity markets • Everything is happening slower in the emerging markets and major challenges are ahead • Developed countries will have to be prepared to…

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The Fed Plays God

Apr 13, 2020

6:52 am

• Fed comes back to the market with a further wave of unprecedented support • A further $2.3 trillion and they may still not yet be done • The purchase of junk bonds comes with huge moral hazard • The Fed’s emergency’ action now spans over a decade • We suspect that the Fed has…

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