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MARKET COMMENTARY

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Much Fuss About Dots

Jun 21, 2021

10:39 am

• Markets reacted sharply to rising dots at the Fed • We find it difficult to square the near-term moves in long term US government bond yields with the likely direction of the markets over the medium term • Equities were overbought and vulnerable to the Fed news…but the medium-term still appears constructive • More…

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Inflated Complacency

Jun 14, 2021

10:27 am

• Bond market fails to be impressed by a record 5.0% US inflation. • The market’s characterisation of high inflation as ‘transitory’ is exaggerated, in our view. • Global core inflation at a 25-year high. • ESG and wage inflation could still spring a significant inflation surprise. • Fundamentally, a 1.45% 10-year government bond yield…

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Touching New Heights

Jun 9, 2021

8:11 am

Last month the market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE crossed USD 3trillion for the first time, doubling from USD 1.5trillion in March 2020. India first touched the USD 1trillion mark in May 2007, it took another 10 years to reach the next trillion. The last trillion has taken lesser than 4 years. India…

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Credit Bracing for Higher Inflation

Jun 7, 2021

9:20 am

• US headline inflation due this week to be just shy of 5% • More pipeline inflation evident as parts of the world runs short of products and workers. • US year-end inflation forecast to still be around 2.5-3%. • We suspect the Fed will have to relent and allow the curve to steepen if…

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