Published Sep 8, 2022
The inflation talk After relentless selling during the first half of this year, markets rallied hard in July as the Fed remarks were interpreted as more dovish than expected. The bond markets were pricing in a Fed rate cut by as early as February 2023, and equity markets too rejoiced at the prospect; with the…
Read MorePublished Sep 6, 2022
• There are few places to hide from falling markets • Equity and bond market returns become more positively correlated • More inflation lurks within a positive US employment report • ECB likely to increase rates by 75bps even as Russia turns off a gas tap • A new prime minister in the UK, amidst…
Read MorePublished Aug 30, 2022
• Jerome Powell sends a very clear message – rates will be higher for longer • Equity market sell-off could extend • However, longer-dated bonds are well behaved; 10-year looks to hold at around the 3% level • We remain underweight equities and, instead, continue to recommend holding high levels of cash The US financial…
Read MorePublished Aug 24, 2022
• The market is pricing a more aggressive Fed than previously thought. • We expect Fed action and signs of a potential sharp slowdown in US growth to be more challenging for equities than bonds. • Watch to see if institutional buying protects the 3.0% level on the US 10 year government bond yield. •…
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