Conclusion – 18 Insights for 2018
Investment Outlook ,
Published
Jan 18, 2018
-
Upside surprises on domestic economic
growth will come through via structural
reforms, heading into 2019, as the
economy recovers
- Infrastructure spending will finally come
forward as the government gets serious
about execution and implementation
- Strong liquidity in the Indian market will
continue and build apace, as the positive
wealth effect of equities lead consumers to
feel wealthier
- A rising number of active managers will
underperform benchmarks going forward
- The size of the funds managed is likely to
be inversely correlated to performance
- Market participants will continue to move
away from large-caps, focusing on
mid-caps and add increasing exposure to
small-caps
- A correction at some point in 2018 is likely.
Driven by inflation and rising bond yields
domestically, and central bank rate hikes,
withdrawal of liquidity and the subsequent
balance sheet unwinding, globally
- It will take a severe correction for the bulls
to stop buying the dip
- Indian millennials will flock to affordable
home purchases, equities, and
consumption, in that order
- Real estate buyers will come back to the
affordable segment of the market as
affordability converges with price
- Real estate yields will become more
important than capital appreciation
- Growth will emerge stronger in emerging
markets
- India will become the fastest growing large
economy in the world, eclipsing China.
Indian equity market will jump to become
the 5th largest in the world
- The days of U.S. tech dominance will slow
and others will catch up, with the
exception of Google. Amazon will fight
Reliance/Dmart/Future Group/Flipkart;
Facebook will mature; Uber will take on
Ola; AirBnB will make limited headway
versus OYO/MMT, Hotstar/Hooq will
fight Netflix
- Tesla will face strong competition as
well-funded, experienced players enter the
EV space. EVs will move closer to reality
and will accelerate in pockets; India’s
players are well positioned
- Apple’s best days are behind it, as a
paucity of innovative products and
increasing recognition of the superiority of
Android leaves it a niche player
- Russia and the U.S. will drive Crude
pricing, not Saudi Arabia
- Social media will convert to mature growth
as consumers tire of the next cool app and
smartphone addiction
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Investment Outlook 2018
