Mumbai, Jul 6, 2026
For a balanced portfolio, Shiv Gupta of Sanctum suggests holding around 40 per cent in equities, 25 per cent in debt, and 25 per cent in alternatives, including private equity, private debt, and gold
Large-caps are witnessing renewed investor interest following a prolonged period of small and mid-cap outperformance, said Shiv Gupta, founder and CEO of Sanctum Wealth in an email interview with Abhinav Ranjan. Earnings remain a key driver for the markets and the Street’s expectation of mid-teens earnings growth in FY27 will be crucial, he said, given current valuations are not cheap. Edited excerpts:
With interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties still at play, what other factors will shape the market in H2?
In India, after 125 basis points (bps) of easing and a pause, monetary policy is now more a stabiliser rather than an expected driver of returns, at least in the near-term. Looking ahead, three factors will be important – croporate earnings, energy prices, and foreign investor flows.
What are the biggest triggers that investors should watch over the next one year?
The immediate trigger is earnings season. Given that valuations are not inexpensive, delivering on earnings is critical. Beyond that, investors should watch the progress on an India-US trade agreement and the RBI’s policy decisions as inflation and growth evolve. Geopolitical developments remain on the radar, though they are expected to have less of an impact than earlier in the year. One factor that deserves more attention is the IPO pipeline. Healthy capital formation is positive, but a large volume of issuance also competes for investor liquidity.
What portfolio strategy do you recommend for the next 12–18 months. Which asset classes have been the most sought after in the last six months?
For a balanced portfolio, I recommend holding around 40 per cent in equities, 25 per cent in debt, and 25 per cent in alternatives, including private equity, private debt, and gold. For gold, we maintain a modest overweight position of 10 per cent.
There is also renewed interest in large-caps after a prolonged period when small-and mid-caps dominated conversations. Within fixed income, private credit and structured credit have seen healthy demand, while private equity continues to appeal to long-term investors. One noticeable shift has been the growing acceptance of gold, and increasingly silver, as permanent components of diversified portfolios. Also, international investing has broadened.
With small-and midcaps outperforming large-caps this year, do you think this trend will continue?
Although mid-and small-caps are indeed ahead over the past year, both corrected sharply through the second half of 2024 and again in 2025, and even after that, many still trade richer relative to their own history than large-caps do. The Nifty 50 is a little under 21x trailing earnings, having eased back from the 23x to 24x it carried a year ago. Market leadership rotates, and we see value in large-caps, which represent a less crowded end of the market for when sentiment turns.
Do you think the market is overestimating artificial intelligence (AI)-related risks?
AI is unquestionably transformative, but markets often swing between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism when evaluating new technologies. History suggests that technological shifts rarely eliminate industries overnight, but reward businesses with capable management teams that respond quickly and use new technologies well. So far, much of the market’s focus has been on the infrastructure supporting AI. The next phase, where adoption translates into applications built on that infrastructure and into productivity gains across industries, is still unfolding and could create opportunities across many sectors, including in India.
What’s the road ahead for the wealth management industry in India? By when do you see a consolidation phase kicking in, and what will trigger it?
The long-term opportunity remains exceptionally attractive. Rising household wealth, increasing financialisation of savings, an expanding product universe, and growing demand for advice should continue to support the industry’s growth for many years. At the same time, the business is becoming more demanding. Competition is intense, talent is scarce, technology requires ongoing investment, and client expectations continue to rise. Technology, driven by AI, will likely bring about a huge structural change over the coming decade, allowing firms to not only improve productivity but to entirely reimagine their service models.
Given the factors at play, scale is important and consolidation is inevitable, and we are already seeing early examples. A prolonged period of subdued markets, rising investment requirements, or a couple of firm-level setbacks driven by over-optimism, could all accelerate that process.
Is there pressure on margins for the industry as a whole as investment options thin out amid market volatility? How is Sanctum coping?
There is certainly some pressure on margins. Competition has intensified, investors have become a little more cautious on some instruments in the near-term, costs continue to rise, and revenue margins have become finer. That said, these pressures are being offset by the powerful structural tailwinds that we have discussed and, over a full cycle, industry margins remain in a healthy range.
At Sanctum, we recognise these near-term realities and adjust tactically where needed, including being more patient and selective in hiring. At the same time, we remain firmly focused on the long term, continuing to invest in people, productivity and technology to build capacity and strengthen the platform.
– Shiv Gupta, Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Featured in Business Standard
For more information, please visit www.sanctumwealth.com
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