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No Easy Bets Except Maybe in Tech

Published May 21, 2024

• We still worry about US stagflation • We remain positive on European equities – lower inflation helps • Chinese equities challenged by weak data, but government action in the real estate sector provides support • Japan disappoints on growth but equities helped by reform • NVIDIA quarterly results likely to show that growth momentum…

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Investment Strategy

Published May 15, 2024

• Fed almost rules out a rate hike; the market still expects two rate cuts, starting September 2024. • Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East in April but now seem to have stabilized. • India’s PMIs are near all-time high, underscoring its economic resilience. • Q4FY24 earnings of Indian companies are broadly in line…

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A World of Contrasts

Published May 14, 2024

• Stagflation alarms in the US as household confidence drops sharply but inflation expectations inch up • Europe’s building growth story – strengthening consumer spending could pull the economy out of recession • China’s growing list of positives: (a) possible government stimulus, (b) potential QE, and (c) a sharp increase in share buybacks • Elections…

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Goldilocks makes a re-appearance

Published May 7, 2024

• Worse-than-expected US employment data leads to anticipation of rate cuts from September, aligning with a Goldilocks scenario. • Lower-than-expected US jobs growth offsets concerns from stronger inflation reports. • China’s potential quantitative easing boosts Chinese equities but risks upsetting the Goldilocks scenario. • Traders may see a growth surge and risk-on sentiment, especially in…

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